We hear the question all the time- “How much is this round of tariffs going to impact us?” It’s a fair question, and the answer is extremely complex, so let’s dive in:
- Looking Back at The IRA in USA.
- The Biden administration saw things differently for US manufacturing. They implemented the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to lure more manufacturing onto US soil.
- The IRA did its job and companies, like Enphase, moved a huge chunk of their manufacturing to the USA so they could be considered domestic content.
- Many solar manufacturers made the decision between 2020-2024 to either send the majority or portion of manufacturing to the USA.
- Impact on Solar in Canada.
- US solar companies became incentivized to use US made goods, and largely abandoned anything made overseas.
- The glut of additional materials the USA was not using, hit Canada hard late in 2024, and into 2025. This actually drove pricing down significantly to a point where some panels are 70% less expensive than they were in 2021.
- Canadian installers struggled to get our hands on the USA made content. It was a higher price point due to large demand in the USA
- Tariffs Imposed in 2025.
- When Trump took office part of his perceived mandate was to further protect US manufacturing and the key way he feels that can happen is through tariffs on most if not all imports from around the world.
- Broad based tariffs have been on-again-off-again since early 2025.
- There seems to be no underlying reason for certain items to be tariffed, so we are left to speculate what might be next.
- Uncertainty Ensues
- With all the moving parts noted between 2021-2025, solar in Canada seems to be volatile.
- General market uncertainty also plays into the fear that now may not be a good time to move forward with solar in Canada.
- The Reality
- Installers in Canada had had limited access to American made goods over the last 1-2 years, so sourcing from Southeast Asia, and Europe is stronger than ever.
- Because partners in our strong trade areas are struggling to sell into the US, pricing is the lower than ever.
- As of writing this post on July 11, 2025 we are seeing tariffs tangibly hit about 5-10% of our input costs, and those are seeing minimal 10-15% increases ie. aluminum extruders have added ~15% due to their 25% increase on raw material.
- Why Now is Still a Great Time for Solar
- Demand is low. People are balking at anything not deemed necessary due to the uncertainty in the market this is helping to lower labour and OH costs and companies become more and more competitive.
- Alberta has a number of fantastic incentives.
- Commercial- 30% ITC.
- Commercial- 20% SEMI (can be stacked with ITC for a total of 50% off).
- Residential- Greener Homes Loan.
- Residential- CEIP.
- The opportunity cost of waiting is potentially extreme. As demand comes back, both labour and material prices will likely escalate to levels of 3-5 years ago.
Conclusion: There is a lot of uncertainty in the world right now. Waiting is a perfectly understandable conclusion. But always remember that with uncertainty comes a great deal of opportunity. Solar might just be the right opportunity for your home or business in these uncertain times.